Cross-venue prediction-market matching is the process of finding the same real-world event listed on two exchanges, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, confirming the contracts settle on the same outcome, and comparing their prices after fees.
Why matching is the hard part
Two venues word the same event differently, settle on different sources, and close at different times. A price gap is only real if the contracts truly match.
Four steps
- Discover — pull every open market from both venues.
- Match — pair markets that describe the same event and resolve the same way.
- Price — compare prices net of each venue's fees.
- Record — log every decision so the method can be checked.
How Jupiter runs it
Pred MKT puts Kalshi and Polymarket in one frame, matches the same event across venues, and flags every price gap as it opens. Every trade, every fee and every rule change is published on a public ledger at thejupiterai.com/predictionmkt.
What is cross-venue matching?
Finding the same event on two prediction-market venues, confirming the contracts settle the same way, and comparing prices after fees.
Why do fees matter so much?
Small edges are common and fees are charged on every trade, so the net price is the only one that counts.
Can I see Jupiter's trades?
Yes. The Pred MKT public ledger at thejupiterai.com/predictionmkt lists every trade and fee.
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