Jupiter Pred MKT READ-ONLY · PAPER
Kalshi Markets
—
open · tracked
Polymarket Markets
—
active binary
Matched Pairs
—
AI-verified contracts
Divergence Alerts
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last 24h
Quotes Archived
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since Phase-1 launch
Widest Live Spread
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across matched pairs

Paper Book & Sleeves — $1M simulated · read-only

PAPER · ENGINE ARMED
Book Value *paper
$1,000,000
engine live · awaiting first signals
Realized P&L
$0
0 closed trades
Open Positions
0
2% sizing · stop −50%
Paper equity curve — the money line. Draws from the second daily mark onward (first mark banked today; point 2 lands tomorrow evening). Real marks only, never simulated history.
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Safeguards live: 2% position size · single position ≤5% of book · per-sleeve caps · 80% gross cap · −50% stop-loss · kill switch · modeled venue fees on every entry. Auto-recalibration shifts capital toward winning sleeves (needs 5+ closed trades). All paper — no real money.

Trade Ledger — every closed paper trade, fees included

REAL · PAPER
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Rule Log — what the engine changed about itself, and when

SECOND-ORDER
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Divergence Monitor — Kalshi vs Polymarket

REAL · LIVE
Matching engine runs hourly (first run ~20 past the hour). Pairs appear here as the AI verifies them.
Match = AI-read resolution-rule similarity (0–100). Low-score pairs are labeled — their gaps are definitional, not tradeable divergence.

Venue Snapshot — most active markets, live YES odds

REAL · LIVE
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Highest-volume markets on each venue with their current YES probability — real prices from the last 5-minute poll.

Probability History

REAL · ACCRUING
History accrues from the quote archive — first curves appear once a matched pair has a few hours of 5-minute polls.

Strategy Performance — Per-Sleeve P&L ($) vs Time

REAL · PAPER
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Each panel is that sleeve's own P&L — realized from closed trades plus current marks on open ones. Curves draw once a sleeve has closed trades; a flat panel means the sleeve hasn't fired yet, which is information, not a bug.

Recent Divergence Alerts

REAL · LIVE
No alerts yet. An alert fires when a verified pair's spread holds ≥5¢ across consecutive polls.

AI News Digest — event-mapped headlines

SENSOR LIVE
News reader polls every 10 minutes and maps headlines to matched markets. Only real, AI-triaged hits appear here.

Platform Status

REAL
Kalshi RESTawaiting first poll
Polymarket Gammaawaiting first poll
Matching engineawaiting first run
Last ingest—
Regulatory watch: CFTC event-contract proposal in comment period (since Jun 10, 2026); sports contracts (~80% of Kalshi volume) exposed. Tracked as platform risk.

Pair Quality

REAL
Match-score distribution appears with the first verified pairs.

Whale Feed — fills ≥ $10k

SENSOR LIVE
Whale sensor polls the public Polymarket trade tape every 15 minutes. Large fills appear here as they print; wallet skill-scores accrue with history.

Fair-Value Model

SENSOR LIVE
AI fair probabilities render in the Divergence Monitor's "AI Fair" column (refreshed every 6h on the most liquid pairs). Calibration ledger (Brier scores) accrues as markets resolve — published once there's enough history to be honest about.

Arb Scanner · Ghost-Fill

PHASE 3
Net-of-fees, executable-depth-aware arbitrage ranking with spoof detection. Ships in Phase 3 after the paper gate.